Report: Future trends for Scotland

Findings from the 2024-25 Horizon Scanning Project.

Introduction

Some fascinating insights in this packed document. Yesterday’s ‘conspiracy theories’ proving to be based in today’s realities not fantasy. eg-Going ‘green’ will mean going without. Being ‘sustainable’ will mean paying more for less. The ‘fourth industrial revolution’ will mean the current capitalism being replaced and millions of jobs lost to A.I/automation which ironically is admitted in this document is a contribuiting factor towards ‘climate change’ due to the massive amounts of energy it requires to operate but hey, at least you are not allowed to install a new gas boiler to save the planet?!?!

Link to document

An in-depth review of all the material gathered in order to synthesise a list of 60 trends organised across six overarching themes:

● Politics and Governance

● Economy

● Society and Communities

● Technology

● Natural Resources, Energy and Climate Change

● Health.

Before i unpack the above themes this phrase was particularly striking to me.

‘A new ‘GREEN WORLD ORDER’ is emerging.’

Capitalist system needs to change according to WEF

‘‘Within 10-20 years we should expect successful attacks against critical national infrastructure.’’

‘‘Between 2020-21 and 2022-23, net migration to Scotland almost tripled, from 22,200 to 61,600.’’

‘‘There is a very young population in Africa… migration of young people from African countries may be an important workforce response to demographic challenges.’’

‘‘Impact of A.I, tech etc on democratic processes – likely to accelerate falling of trust in institutions and polarisation.”

‘‘In 2024 and 2025, the World Economic Forum cited misinformation as the biggest short-term risk.’’

“The transition to net zero could boost productivity and living standards but it is likely not to be as productive as oil and gas was.’’

‘‘IMF researchers estimated that 40% of global jobs were at high exposure to AI in the coming decades, rising to 60% in advanced economies.’’

‘‘Another UK Government estimate suggests around 10-30% of existing UK jobs are highly automatable and may be subject to some level of change over the next 20 years.’’

‘‘Some of the most exposed occupations to automation include clerical work and finance, law, business management and teaching. Least exposed sectors include accommodation and food, motor trades and agriculture.’’

‘‘Investment in Scotland and the UK has been relatively low compared to other OECD countries – it was around 18% of GDP in 2023, which was in the bottom quartile of OECD countries (chart).’’

‘‘Health spending is projected to grow from 34% of devolved spending in 2029-30 to 47% by 2074-75, driven by an ageing population, costs of new treatments and increases in chronic conditions.’’

‘‘I think there is a risk there that you end up saying people will have to accept a significantly reduced state/level of services from the state while retaining the same levels of taxation. What you do is you break a social contract and that's really challenging.”

‘‘Scotland’s overall population is projected to continue growing until 2051. This population growth is projected to be driven exclusively by positive net migration.’’

‘‘The number of deaths in Scotland are projected to exceed the number born, and the birth rate will continue to decrease.’’

‘‘Only a few EU countries have lower birth rates than Scotland.’’

‘‘The use of AI in creative sectors has increased, creating concern about the potential for AI to use or duplicate the work of human creators without their consent, or to replace their jobs altogether. For example, art has been used to train AI image generators without artists’ consent.’’

‘‘Warner music has recently signed its first virtual popstar, Noonoouri.’’

‘‘There are ideas that A.I can help mitigate climate change,although at the moment A.I is contributing to the crisis through the way it is being used and the infrastructure required to support it.”

‘‘Extreme weather events are the top-ranked risk over a ten-year period in the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2025. The impacts of extreme weather may deplete available economic resources to mitigate and adapt to climate change.’’

‘‘People need to value their water, to move away from using high quality drinking water (that takes a lot of energy and carbon to produce) for watering plants and washing cars. The future is about strategies to promote reuse of grey water.”

‘‘The burden of disease will create a greater demand equivalent to the entire treatment and impact of cancer.”

‘‘Declining trust in health authorities could impede the effective response to any future pandemic. In a recent multicountry survey, just 63.3% of global and 69.3% of UK respondents answered ‘yes’ to the question: “If the World Health Organization (WHO) announced a new pandemic threat and advised getting vaccinated, would you?”

‘‘A 2023 survey asked 187 infectious disease experts from 57 countries to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic. Influenza was ranked most highly, with SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and Ebola also of significant concern. However, ranked second to influenza was ‘Disease X’, representing some pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease.’’

Scotland in 2050

Also see the following speech by First Minster John Swinney in relation to this document.

Thanks for stopping by. Like, share and comment if you care.

End