NRS monthly mortality+births analysis Jun 2024

All cause mortality remains high. 2nd lowest June birth rate on record.

All cause mortality Jan-Jun 2015-2019

2015= 30,254

2016= 28,864

2017= 29,206

2018= 30,602

2019= 28,788

Average= 29,542

All cause mortality Jan-Jun 2020-2024

2020= 33,868

2021= 30,906

2022= 31,061

2023= 32,510

2024= 31,401 +16 million doses of mRNA

Compared to pre pandemic currently mortality is around 6.5% above average. An additional 1,859 deaths over the first 6 months of 2024.

Apologies for the size of image.

‘COVID’ era period mortality

The last 4 years are unprecedented for sustained excess death rates (% of population) in Scotland, surpassing both world wars and Spanish flu mortality events. Despite best efforts by NRS to reduce how excess deaths are calculated.

‘‘The chosen methodology uses statistical models to obtain the expected number of deaths in each period. Importantly, this approach moves away from averages drawn from raw numbers and instead uses age-specific mortality rates.’’ - ONS

Births

Current birth rates continue to remain historically low and for June, 2nd lowest on record since 1991. Despite a growing population births are 40% BELOW 1991 levels.

Depopulation

With ongoing higher death rates combined with lower birth rates depopulation is a very real threat to the continuation of the native Scottish population.

‘'Scotland’s population is projected to start declining from 2033 the only country in the UK where this is the case.’' - Scottish Government

• 14 council areas to decline over next decade

• Total children to fall nearly a fifth by 2045

End

Links:

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/monthly-births-scotland

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/monthly-mortality-analysis-scotland

https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2024/02/15/excess-deaths-a-new-methodology-and-better-understanding/

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2024/02/supporting-enabling-sustainable-communities-action-plan-address-depopulation/documents/supporting-enabling-sustainable-communities-action-plan-address-depopulation/supporting-enabling-sustainable-communities-action-plan-address-depopulation/govscot%3Adocument/supporting-enabling-sustainable-communities-action-plan-address-depopulation.pdf